The term ground-source heat pump (GSHP) refers to geothermal and hydrothermal heat pumps. In its latest barometer, EurObserv’ER reports that “the double whammy dealt by the economic crisis and housing slump has stifled expansion of the ground-source heat pump market in many European countries”. The European Union market contracted for the second year running (by 2.9% between 2009 and 2010).
Despite the tight economic and financial circumstances, the European GSHP market made sales of 103,846 units, taking the number of installed units past the one million mark. Furthermore, while market contraction persisted through 2010, it was less pronounced than between 2008 and 2009, when a drop of 6.6% was recorded (114,452 units sold in 2008 against 106,940 in 2009).
EurObserv’ER reports that the decline of the GSHP market has not pervaded all European Union countries, with Sweden experiencing especially healthy growth in 2001. According to SVEP (the Swedish heat pump association) the country insulated 31,954 GSHPs in 2010, representing a 16% rise on 2009.
This growth has levered Sweden back into top spot, which it lost the Germany in 2008 and 2009. Behind Sweden and Germany come France, Finland, Austria and the Netherlands.
Air blows GSHPs out
Last March, the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands published a summary of each Member State's National Renewable Energy Actions Plans, which indicates that the total contribution of renewable energy captured by heat pumps at 4 Mtoe in 2010, which is predicted to rise to 7.2 Mtoe in 2015 and 12.1 Mtoe in 2020.
The barometer analysis shows that air source heat pumps account for the bulk of heat pump sales in the EU. Most of them are reversible air-to-air or air-to-water systems and supply heating. The first type heat using fan convectors, while the latter supply under-floor heating circuits or low-temperature radiators.
Preliminary figures from the European Heat Pump Association reveal that total heat pump sales in Europe stand at 456,144 in 2010, with GSHPs accounting for less than a quarter (23%) of these.
Extrapolating the data provided by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, by 2020, 56.9% of total contribution made by heat pumps will come from aerothermal heat pumps, 38.1% from GSHPs and 5% from hydrothermal systems.
The White Paper of 1997 on renewable energies estimated the contribution made by GSHPs in the EU-15 at 2,500 MWth in 2010. In actual fact, the installed capacity in 2010 turned out to be five times higher.
The authors of the latest EurObserv’ER barometer believe that the future is bright for GSHPs. They forecast 10% average annual growth in the number of units. With a mean service life of 18 years, it is predicted that the European heat pump base would stand at close to 2.6 million units by 2020. "The output of the European heat pump base would hover around 5.5 Mtoe in 2020, which is somewhat higher than the action plan projections,” they conclude.
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