The report finds that Australia could phase out all coal burning by 2030 and convert all its transport to renewable energy by 2035. The modelling was commissioned by GetUP! and Solar Citizens as part of the Homegrown Power Plan, which sets out how Australia can repower the country with renewable energy, reboot its failing electricity system and remove the roadblocks holding back the renewables boom.
The model used by ISF was originally created by the German Aerospace Agency. It has previously been used to inform the German government’s ‘Energiewende’ (Energy transition) and climate mitigation scenarios for the IPCC.
“Our modelling shows that by mid-century all of Australia’s energy can be completely decarbonised, including all transport, industry and heating” said Dr Sven Teske, lead author of the modelling report and Research Principal at ISF. “The modelling demonstrates an average of $20 billion in fuel cost savings every year between now and 2050. Australia would save, on average, $9 billion a year on power sector fuel costs and $11 billion a year on transport fuel costs between now and 2050.”
ISF developed three scenarios for the possible pathways for future Australian energy supply. These consisted of a Reference scenario reflecting a continuation of current trends and policies; a 65 percent Australian scenario which focuses on renewable energy in the stationary power sector with continued dependence by transport and industry on fossil fuels, and a 100 percent Australian scenario which focuses on a fully decarbonised power sector by 2030 including a fully renewable energy supply system – including power and industry.
Within the power sector, the 100 percent Australia scenario projects 97 percent of total electricity demand (including electric transport) supplied by renewables by 2035. It envisages the doubling of productivity in energy by 2030 with all coal power plants shut down and firm capacity remaining at the current level of approximately 75 percent throughout the entire scenario period.
For the transport sector, the 100 percent scenario projects 41 percent renewables by 2035, 64 percent by 2040 and 100 percent by 2050. Australia could also eradicate all oil imports within one generation.
Within industry, supply of energy could become 50 percent renewable by 2035 and 100 percent by 2050 with electricity consumption doubling by 2050 in order to replace direct fuel consumption.
Across all sectors, 41 percent of energy could become renewable by 2030, 59 percent by 2035, 70 percent by 2040 and 96 percent by 2050.
For additional information:
University of Technology Sydney Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF)
