Transport Outlook 2010 was presented by ITF Secretary General Jack Short yesterday during the first day of the ITF’s 2010 Forum event in Leipzig (Germany), which brings together Ministers and senior decision makers from 52 ITF member countries every year to debate strategic issues in global mobility, transport and logistics. This year’s Forum, which continues until tomorrow, is headlined as Transport and Innovation: Unleashing the Potential.
According to research by the ITF/OECD’s Joint Transport Research Centre, the current crisis has had a relatively greater impact on trade and transport than previous economic downturns. This is reflected in very large volume and price effects, especially in freight transport. Trade fell by about 20%, according to the CPB World Trade Volume Index, dry bulk shipping rates fell dramatically by a factor of 8 from 2007 to 2008.
Car ownership and car use appear to be levelling off in advanced economies. This is not necessarily saturation, but reflects high and uncertain energy prices, lower and uncertain incomes, a switch to faster modes like air travel or high speed rail.
Air travel growing fastest
Transport growth will have considerable impact on future carbon dioxide emissions. Air passenger transport is the fastest growing transport mode. The ITF researchers expect that volumes will triple by 2050 as in 2010 – a figure substantially more conservative than that given by the airline industry. This rate of growth poses a significant challenge in the fight against climate change, since the aviation industry accounts for around 3-5% of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.
Stabilizing greenhouse missions from light-duty vehicles alone will require fuel economy to roughly double. Car emissions would have to attain 90 g/km in 2050 as a global average.
The ITF reports that demand management in transport can help to reduce emissions, stressing that “It is also badly needed to address other transport related problems, such as congestion, air pollution, and noise”. But the ITF experts do not see it as a primary tool for curbing emission growth. “Firstly, changes on the scale needed to curb carbon dioxide emissions are likely unfeasible or economically undesirable. Secondly, technological innovation provides better ways to reach climate change targets,” they say.
Efficiency is key
In the view of ITF researchers, optimising fuel economy needs to be the core strategy for transport-related CO2 emissions reduction in the next two decades. Nonetheless, the energy base of transport needs to be transformed if renewed growth of emissions after 2050 is to be avoided. “Greenhouse gas policies in transport will need to rely on a combination of demand management and technology change,” say the study’s authors, although they do not specify which energies or technologies should be ay the heart of the sector’s drive to become greener.
“Policy support for this lengthy process must start now”, said Jack Short, Secretary General of the ITF, in Leipzig. “Innovation is the key”, said Short. “We need it in all areas: To get the most out of the tried and tested technologies, and to open new paths that can make transport cleaner, safer more accessible and more efficient.”
Watch this space as Renewable Energy Magazine will be interviewing Jack Short next month to find out more about what the global transport sector needs to do in terms of renewable energy uptake to clean up its act.
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