This general decrease is due to a significant increase in the wind energy production compared to the average values of last week. AleaSoft expects the price of most of the European electricity markets, with the exception of the German market, to recover today, October 11, when the effect of the wind energy production peak passes, and then fall again in the following days, due to the decline in the national demands that weekends involve.
This week, the group of lower priced markets is integrated by the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, N2EX market of Great Britain and the EPEX SPOT markets of France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, although this week the Nordic market was not the one with the lowest price in Europe. In the group of markets with higher prices, the Italian IPEX market, which continues to lead the group, and the MIBEL market remain.
The CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2019, started this week with a price of €23.41/t, 2.0% higher than the settling price of Friday, October 4. However, on Tuesday, October 8, the price fell to €22.53/t, which is the minimum value reached so far this month and is 10% lower than the corresponding value on the same day of last week. Yesterday, Wednesday, October 9, the price experienced a 0.6% rise compared to the price of Tuesday, standing at €22.67/t.
The European electricity futures prices for the first quarter of 2020 remained stable in the middle of this week compared to Friday, October 4. The markets with the greatest variation were ICE and NASDAQ of the Nordic countries, which closed Wednesday, October 9, 3.5% lower than the previous Friday. The rest of the markets varied between 0.9% and 0.7%.
The European electricity futures for the year 2020 behaved similarly to futures for the first quarter of 2020. In this case, the ICE and NASDAQ markets of the Nordic countries were also the ones that presented the greatest variation followed by the EEX and ICE markets of UK. In general, the differences between the end of, Wednesday, October 9 and that of Friday, October 4, are between 1.9% and 1.2%.
In the first three days of this week, the electricity demand fell in several European countries, compared to the same period of last week. The most significant drop, of 3.8%, occurred in Portugal. In other countries, such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands, the electricity demand increased, The largest increase, 5.3%, was seen in the Netherlands.
The average wind energy production experienced an increase from Monday to Wednesday of this week in almost all Europe, except in Spain, where there was a decrease of 3.9% compared to last week's average. In percentage terms, Portugal was the country of the highest increase with 30%, followed by France with 19%. Germany had the highest increase in absolute terms, whose value was 64 GWh and represented an increase of 17% over last week.
The solar energy production, which includes photovoltaic and solar thermal, decreased in the three analyzed countries compared to the average values of last week. In Germany it fell 13%, 5.5% in Spain and 6.4% in Italy.
For mor information : AleaSoft Energy Forecasting
