The independent energy expert and assurance provider assessed the UK’s trajectory against key government targets: Clean Power 2030, 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the net zero by 2050 goal.
While the UK will fall short - missing net zero by 18 percent - DNV’s analysis shows substantial progress in decarbonisation. By 2050, emissions are projected to drop 82 percent from 1990 levels, amounting to remaining annual emissions of 145 million tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e).
The short-term Clean Power 2030 target sets an ambition to decarbonise the electricity system by decade’s end, but DNV forecasts that unabated gas will still generate 12 percent of UK electricity in 2030. Full decarbonisation is expected by 2035.
Renewables will see strong growth, with solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind capacity nearly doubling to 90 GW by 2030. However, this remains 45 GW short of government targets to double onshore wind, triple solar, and quadruple offshore wind.
Under the new NDC, the UK has committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81 percent by 2035, compared to 1990 levels. DNV’s projections suggest it will reach only 68 percent, requiring steeper reductions to meet its pledge.
“Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, the UK’s trajectory remains positive” said Hari Vamadevan, executive vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV. “A substantial green prize for our economy – cleaner and more affordable energy-, is there for the taking if we can grasp it. We must act swiftly to ensure we make decisive moves along the correct path.”
Decarbonisation is cost-effective: by 2050, household energy costs for consumers will drop nearly 40 percent from 2021 levels. Energy demand will shrink by 25 percent, even as electricity consumption more than doubles, requiring 180 GW of new generation capacity. This decoupling of energy demand and GDP highlights continual energy-efficiency improvements across the economy.
Low carbon sources are expected to surpass fossil fuels in the supply mix, with the latter falling from 75 percent of primary energy today to 34 percent by 2050. However, oil and gas will remain dominant across the next decade, with significant amounts still required to balance energy demand and ensure security of supply.
To address lagging emissions reductions, the UK must accelerate large-scale electrification in heating and transport, alongside scaling carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen infrastructure.
Without stronger incentives, electric vehicle adoption will lag, with close to 60 percent of the passenger cars still running on fossil fuels by 2035.
Home heating presents another challenge: by 2050, more than half of homes will still use natural gas, with heat pump adoption limited by costs and insulation requirements. Without policy shifts to lower costs, gas will remain dominant for the foreseeable future.
“The scale of change can feel daunting, but change happens incrementally and progress is undeniable” added Mr Vamadevan. “To seize the potential economic, environmental and societal benefits ahead, we must turn urgency into actions - scaling renewables and updating grids at pace. Now more than ever, we need to move faster, forward, together.”
For additional information:
