As a result of the election, Republicans will take over leadership in the US House of Representatives after gaining 60 seats. Democrats, of course, still hold the presidency and a majority in the US Senate, although they do so with a slimmer majority, having lost six seats.
The consensus view is premised both on the particularly combative nature of campaign preceding the 2 November vote and on the Republicans’ coming to power in the House based largely on the promise to restrain “out-of-control” federal spending.
But at the same time, there’s also a tremendous amount of uncertainty when it comes to the future of renewable energy in the US.
In the immediate aftermath of their victories, President Barack Obama pledged to find areas to compromise with the new House leadership -- specifically making reference to energy issues – while also acknowledging how difficult the road ahead will be.
“I think there are a lot of Republicans that ran against the energy bill that passed in the House last year, and so it's doubtful that you could get the votes to pass that through the House this year or next year or the year after,” President Obama said during a nationally televised press conference.
Acknowledging the anticipated collapse of a cornerstone of his climate change policy – cap-and-trade, Obama described the strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions as, “just one way of skinning the cat; it was not the only way. It was a means, not an end."
Republicans, meanwhile, have been far less focused on energy policy in recent days, instead continuing to expound on their opposition to other signature pieces of the administration’s agenda, including the implementation of its healthcare overhaul program and financial regulatory reform.
Advocates pressing for renewal of green incentives
Against such a tableaux, advocates for renewable energy are encouraging the post-election, lame-duck session of Congress to extend tax incentives included in the federal stimulus bill that have encouraged development of wind, solar and biomass projects in the US.
The incentives are poised to expire on 31 December. To date, the US Treasury Department has awarded more than $5.4 billion to 1,387 renewable-energy projects. With out continued support, it’s feared those projects will be left to wither.
The American Wind Energy Association, the Solar Energy Industries Association, the Biomass Power Association and the Geothermal Energy Association all sent lawmakers letters on Election Day, pressing to extend the program that expires next month.
The industry organizations cited a study by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (California) from 2009 that found the grant program saved more than 55,000 jobs in the wind-energy industry. The report said most positions were short-term.
They also pointed to an analysis by the Solar Foundation in Washington, DC, that found 93,000 employees in the US solar energy sector, double the number estimated for 2009.
A White House memo written on 25 October by National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers, special adviser on energy and environment Carol Browner, and Vice President Joe Biden’s chief of staff, Ronald Klain that the incentives had been “much more effective in promoting renewable energy” than a program to provide renewable projects with federal loan guarantees.
Letting the grants expire will lead to a “significant slowdown in the renewable-energy industries, resulting in the loss of jobs and further transfer of clean-energy leadership to other countries,” the groups wrote to congressional leaders.
In an interview in Fortune magazine, Dan Gunz, CEO of US Geothermal, a firm that received more than $3 million in federal stimulus funding, said “elections can change the landscape at a time when renewables don’t need a change”.
“A stable funding environment over a long period of time, like four or five years, is far better than these starts ands stops,” he said.
More climate change skeptics head to Washington
President Obama made green energy and addressing climate change high-priority items during his campaign for the presidency, but other than passing the incentives program little has happened administratively on the green energy front.
Of critical concern to renewable energy advocates is the fate of production tax credits, which are meant to stimulate construction of renewable energy power plants, and incentives that help homeowners make their residences more green and energy efficient.
They also fear that at end to the incentive would also curb the appetite of venture capitalists to risk their money in the renewable energy sector, something that would be particularly hurtful to start-ups in the sector.
But will the new era in Washington, D.C. be has hard on renewables as that?
Those who say yes, point to newly elected members of Congress who have gone record as climate change experts.
For instance, Rand Paul, whose district is in the US state of Kentucky, has said, “[climate change] may or may not be true, but they’re making up their facts to fit their conclusions.”
Congressman-elect Marco Rubio, of Florida, has flatly said that he doesn’t think there’s think there’s any scientific evidence of climate change, while Congressman-elect Ron Johnson, of Wisconsin has said, “I absolutely do not believe that the science of man-caused climate change is proven. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
“I think it’s far more likely that it’s just sunspot activity or something just in the geologic eons of time where we have changes in the climate,” he said.
Those of a more optimistic mindset point out that a majority of those victorious in the mid-term election were incumbents, and most of those had supported climate change legislation and incentives for renewable energy development in the past.
And then there’s the case of Representative John Boehner, who is widely expected to become the speaker of the US House in January.
Boehner was skewered by US environmentalists after he gave an April, 2009 interview to the ABC television network’s George Stephanopoulos, in which he said, “the idea that CO2 is harmful to the environment is almost comical.”
More recently, Boehner has vowed to promote new, clean and reliable sources of energy like wind and hydroelectric power, although he in interviews and on his web site, he seems to indicate a preference for nuclear power and “next-generation” coal.
When it comes to energy, Boehner has said his primary goal is to “reduce [US] dependence on foreign sources of energy, protect us against blackmail by foreign dictators, create American jobs and grow our economy”.
It should also be noted that Democrat Harry Reid, a long-time champion of renewable energy (especially geothermal), won his bid for re-election to the US Senate, and now seems certain to remain its Majority Leader.
In the US, differences of opinion between the two chambers of Congress on new or re-authorized legislation are subject to review and compromise by conference committees, suggesting that a wholesale reversal on renewable energy policies in place is unlikely.
Then too, even in the run-up to the election, initiatives like the creation of a federal renewable electricity standard (RES) and a “green bank” to finance projects enjoyed bipartisan support.
Will those initiatives get to the table in the new Congress?
Manik Roy, director of congressional affairs at the Pew Center for Global Climate Change in Washington, DC, isn’t among the optimistic.
Speaking at the Carbon Markets Insights Americas 2010 conference being held in New York, Roy said he much less optimistic about constructive engagement between the political parties going forward.
According to Roy, “the tactic of the Republican leadership was to oppose his initiatives and I think that will be even stronger from the new people coming in”.
But Dan Lashof, a director of the Natural Resources Defence Council in Washington, DC, continues to have an open mind, telling Bloomberg News that he didn’t think it’s all that obvious what the new Congress will do on renewable energy.
“After all, even Republicans that ran opposed to cap-and-trade said they support renewable,” he said.
For additional information:
American Wind Energy Association
Solar Energy Industries Association
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