2009 has seen the most important annual capacity increase ever, which is particularly impressive in light of the difficult financial and economical circumstances prevailing during the year. In 2010, global cumulative installed PV capacity is expected to grow by at least 40%, while the annual growth is expected to increase by more than 15%.
Against this backdrop, members of EPIA, the world’s largest PV industry association representing about 95% of the European PV industry, met at the 5th Workshop on Market Potential and Production Capacity held in Rome on 19 March 2010, to discuss PV results for 2009 and forecasts until 2014.
Europe remains market leader
With a cumulative installed capacity of almost 9 GW, including around 3 GW installed in 2009, Germany remains the world’s largest PV market, although EPIA warns that “the recently announced feed-in tariff cuts are expected to significantly affect the development of the national industry in the longer run”.
EPIA reports in its “Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014” report that, in the mid-term, Italy appears to be one of the most promising markets, with an additional capacity of some 700 MW already in 2009. Besides high sun irradiation, the new Conto Energia, which should be announced in spring, should continue to support the strong momentum of the Italian market.
The Czech Republic also shows important growth in 2009, with 411 MW installed but, due to overly generous support schemes, EPIA expects this market to shrink significantly in 2011 after another year of strong growth in 2010.
“This underlines the imperative need for support mechanisms to be designed in a way to ensure a long term, predictable and sustainable development of the market and avoid instability and discontinuity in market evolution” explains Adel El Gammal, Secretary General of EPIA.
Meanwhile, strong political support enabled Belgium to join the PV top 10, with 292 MW installed in 2009. Due to a revision of the financial support scheme early 2010, the market in Belgium is, however, expected to slow down slightly in 2010.
France follows with 185 MW installed in 2009, with an additional 100 MW installed but not yet connected to the grid. “In spite of a huge potential, this clearly demonstrates the importance for France to solve grid connection issues in order to allow the market to develop,” highlighted EPIA in a recent statement.
In Spain, the imposition a market cap in 2008, combined with the effects of the financial crisis, constrained the market to only about 60 MW installed in 2009. However, PV accounted for about 3% of the electricity production in the country in 2009 and clearly appears as a privileged source of electricity in the fight against Climate Change.
Finally, Greece, Portugal and the U.K. are showing interesting potential for growth in 2010 and beyond.
Japan and US driving growth elsewhere
Outside Europe, Japan positions itself as the third largest market with 484 MW and shows an important growth potential thanks to favourable political support. The US market finally took off significantly with around 475 MW installed in 2009 and appears as a potential leading market for the coming years. China and India are also expected to boom in the next five years with an impressive amount of PV projects in the pipeline. Canada and Australia showed significant market development in 2009 and are expected to open the way to the development of new markets. Brazil, Mexico, Morocco and South Africa are also seen as promising countries.
A bright future for PV
EPIA estimates that the global PV market could reach between 8.2 and 12.7 GW of new installations assuming a moderate scenario and a policy driven scenario, respectively, and would represent a growth of 40% and 60 % of the overall cumulative installed capacity compared to 2009 for the two scenarios.
In a policy-driven scenario, the global annual PV market could reach up to 30 GW in 2014 based, of course, on favourable conditions established by policy makers, regulators and the energy sector at large. The announced world-wide PV production capacity would also be sufficient to cover the expected evolution of the market in the coming five years.
“In addition to the ramp-up of many markets in Europe, the development and opening of new markets in Asia, the Americas and Africa is paving the way to a strong and sustainable momentum of PV powered supply solutions all around the world” concludes Ingmar Wilhelm, President of EPIA.
The EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014 will be published during April 2010.
For additional information:
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
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