The award is part of the Solar Energy Technologies Office’s Solar Forecasting 2 funding program to advance predictive modeling capabilities for solar generation for more accurate forecasts of solar generation levels.
EPRI’s project, “Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty,” will use solar power forecasts to capture the uncertainty inherent in solar power output. Using actual data from three energy companies, the research will develop a platform that enables new power system operating methods and tools.
The project has three objectives:
“With improved solar probabilistic forecasts integrated into utility scheduling and reserve processes, utilities could improve reliability and reduce solar integration costs,” said Aidan Tuohy, principal project manager for transmission operations and planning at EPRI. “If successful, the research could help system operators better manage solar variability and uncertainty, not only for the three demonstration utilities but for the broader industry as well.”
The three energy companies, Hawaiian Electric, Duke Energy, and Southern Company offer diverse operating practices at various stages of solar installation and integration, including specific system characteristics such as the size of the region; current and expected solar penetration; daily and seasonal load shape; generation mix; and other factors.
Hawaiian Electric, Duke Energy, and Southern Company are providing an additional $760,000 for the project in the form of cost share, bringing total funding for the research up to approximately $2.6 million.
