The global solar PV market is ready to arise from the ashes of the 2011 crisis and grow to $155 billion in 2018 says independent research and advisory firm Lux Research in its report Market Size Update 2013: Return to Equilibrium.
The company believes that market forces will engineer a turnaround in the sector producing a healthy 10.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reaching 35GW in 2013 and subsequently soaring to 61.7GW in 2018.
“Manufacturers’ nightmare is turning into a long-term boon for the industry” said Ed Cahill, Lux Research Associate and lead author of the report. “Record low prices pushed gross margins to near zero or below, but they’ve made solar installations competitive in more markets. Supply and demand will come back into balance in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability and restoring the industry to equilibrium.”
Analysts used a detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis in 156 separate locations across the globe accounting for 82 percent of global population. The aim was to determine the viability and competitiveness of solar in each market. The report found that the US, China, Japan and India will take over where Germany and Italy left off and that the US in particular will emerge as the world’s second largest market with China occupying the top position. Growth will be fastest among utility-scale installations and largest in the commercial solar sector. Utility-scale solar will grow from 8.6GW in 2012 to 19.9GW in 2018 as developing markets turn to PV. Commercial applications will reign supreme as more large rooftop installations are deployed in leading nations such as the US and Japan.
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