EPIA recently released the “SET For 2020” study, demonstrating how PV could become a mainstream power source in Europe by 2020. The most progressive scenario (Paradigm Shift Scenario) set a target of 12% of EU’s electricity demand to be supplied by solar PV electricity by 2020.
The 260 participants attending the EPIA’s 2nd International Thin Film Conference in Munich on 12 November expressed their willingness to meet this target and looked at how the different stakeholders within the thin-film sector will approach future challenges and opportunities in order to match the high expected demand.
“By 2020 thin-film technology is expected to represent about one third of the total PV market; this constitutes a challenge but at the same time represents a great opportunity for the whole PV industry and related sectors”, said Adel El Gammal, EPIA Secretary General.
Legal and financial framework must be right
In the current financial context, securing finance is absolutely critical as investments need to be made now in order to increase competitiveness. Bringing down the costs, increasing both the efficiency and the lifetime of PV systems and upscaling towards mass production are essential elements to reduce the cost of PV-generated electricity and bring PV technology to full competitiveness with conventional energy sources.
Thin-film manufacturers showed they are ready to reach the Paradigm Shift Scenario, confirming that fundamentals remain excellent. “The PV industry has proved today that the technology and the capacity for mass production are ready to make PV a mainstream energy source, however we need to ensure that the market and legal conditions are appropriate to guarantee a sustainable market in the next years”, concluded Bernhard Dimmler, CEO of Würth Solar and Chairman of the conference.
Thin-film technologies offer many advantages such as low cost per square metre (important in the development of building-integrated applications), vast availability of materials, high flexibility and an environmental footprint. Some thin-film technologies already offer energy pay-back times below a year (down to six months in best locations), and further decreases are expected as manufacturing processes improve and material usage is reduced.
Prices to drop 60%
Adel El Gammal also recently presented “SET for 2020” in Madrid and remarked that “the only restriction for PV is price” and that this technology will become competitive without any government support within one to two years. The price of electricity, says the EPIA Secretary General, will grow at an average of 2% per annum in Europe, while the cost of PV energy will drop by 8% per year.
When both lines cross, the point of “investment competitiveness” will have been reached, which is when the business model (investment in a PV installation that will supply electricity over 20 years) becomes profitable compared with an electricity contract over the same period, without the need for any subsidies or feed-in tariff. The study shows that investment competitiveness will be reached in some areas of Europe in 2010.
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