The plan, published last week (Friday 13th December) by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), sets an objective to reach 45-47 gigawatts of solar generation capacity by 2030. This is lower than the 60 GW goal put forward by Solar Energy UK last month, which would deliver lower system costs.
The plan states that: “The published evidence demonstrates that intermittent renewable electricity sources like offshore wind, onshore wind and solar PV are the cheapest sources of new electricity generation to build and operate.”
However, it admits that there is “scope to exceed” the 45-47 GW figure, “subject to system need, noting for example the potential of rooftop solar to boost deployment.” This goal is based on earlier advice from the National Energy System Operator.
Just under 8 GW of solar panels are now on British roofs, according to a recent estimate, with more than half on homes. More than 180,000 smaller-scale (MCS) installations alone are expected to be made by the end of the year. Indeed, with more builders putting solar installations on new homes due to a revision to the Building Regulations, the pace is picking up. A new post-subsidy record could well be on the cards next year.
“The solar industry persistently smashes through expectations of growth, in the UK and worldwide, and I have no doubt that it will continue to do so in the coming years” said Chris Hewett, Chief Executive of Solar Energy UK. “Seeking 45 GW is a modest target that we can be sure to exceed.”
The action plan continues to make the same critical error as the earlier advice from NESO: the UK’s current solar capacity is considerably greater than 16.6 GW. It is instead expected to stand at 20 GW by the end of the year, according to both an internal Solar Energy UK estimate, and a credible external estimate received this week. The discrepancy appears to be related both to the fast growth of the sector and the Government statistics’ failure to account for all the commercial-scale rooftop installations since the end of subsidies in 2019.
A further critical aspect of delivering clean power by 2030 is the skills agenda, which will be a major aspect of the roadmap and of Solar Energy UK’s agenda for next year. Its work will also be aligned with the government's objective to enable workers in high-carbon industries to transfer into renewable energy.
Solar Energy UK will be participating in a new Government-industry forum on the supply chain and workforce, to be convened by the Clean Power 2030 Unit and the Office of Clean Energy Jobs, building on the work of the taskforce. A strong public awareness campaign, setting out the opportunities available in the sector, is also much needed.
With regard to regional capacity breakdowns – where and when the government expects utility-scale solar, onshore wind and battery energy storage systems to be delivered over the coming years - these are split between connections to the high-voltage transmission network and lower-voltage distribution networks.
A total of 10.8 GW has been allocated to transmission-connected solar for 2030, with 36.2 GW at distribution voltage. These numbers are in line with the advice Solar Energy UK presented to Government in recent weeks.
The plan also confirms that battery energy storage will play a critical role in the future energy system and will be set for dramatic expansion over the coming years. The technology smooths the variable output from renewables, gathering power when it is cheapest and most abundant while delivering when most needed.
Projections of growth in the sector are limited by referring only to systems intended to store power for a short time. A definition of long-term energy storage has not yet been made.
Several other aspects of the plan will deliver a boost for solar energy:
A reference to Solar Energy UK’s work on the provision of voluntary community benefits for solar farms.
Renewed emphasis on the potential for households to achieve greater energy independence - this could be done through solar and other forms of microgeneration, the use of batteries and EVs, and through greater ability to manage domestic energy use - providing greater system flexibility.
A forthcoming call for evidence on the potential to drive the construction of solar canopies over carparks.
This follows the French Government ordering all large carparks to cover at least half of their area with photovoltaic or green canopies within the next few years.
Plans to support solar under the Warm Homes Plan.
Plans to provide further support for the decarbonisation of local authorities through the National Wealth Fund.
Support for a public awareness campaign on the importance of electricity network infrastructure to support net zero, to be launched early in the new year.
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