The draft decree released at the end of April by the Italian government sets out the country’s commitment to raise the renewable energy share of total electricity demand at 2020 from the 26% EU-agreed target to 32-35% (120-130 TWh/y).
Among the new renewables, the role of PV generation already exceeds that of wind power in the achievement of the new green energy targets, with PV generation hitting a record share of almost 8% of Italy’s domestic power production in March.
Grid parity has already been achieved by solar PV in some segments, while further growth in PV capacity in Italy is expected in late spring and summer.
Perhaps spurred by these positive figures, the Italian government plans to cut FiTs by an average 35% as of 1 July, which is admittedly less than the drop in module and system price over the last year. Indeed, Italian FiT incentives still remain above EU average
The Government has declared that its goal is to ensure Italy remains the world’s second largest PV market, and will pave the way for the whole market to move towards grid parity by fixing a target of 2-3 GW/year of new installed PV capacity, with a corresponding cap to cumulative cost of incentives set to €6.5 B/y.
According to analysts at Jefferies, the global securities and investment banking group, “demand may be more stable longer term”. In a recently released report – “Global / Clean Technology: One More Solar Overhang Removed; Italian Draft Law In Line” – Jefferies said: “We believe this draft law may be revised incrementally positively in coming weeks, but this will not materially change our estimate.... We believe the law is a longer term positive as it is economically more sustainable, plays to PV strengths as a distributed energy source, and favours self-consumption relying less on the grid and subsidy”.
Meanwhile Martin Simonek, analyst, Solar Insight, at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, says the new Conto Energia means “a virtual stop to large utility segment, but not a stop to the Italian PV market”.
Simonek believes that beyond July 2012, there will be almost no activity in this segment, unless Italian developers drive the system costs to levels seen in Germany and explore new revenue generating options based on the wholesale power price. However, he adds that the small residential segment is expected to boom, though this will still keep Italian PV market at more reasonable demand growth.
Believing that the decree will set new challenges but also release new energies and opportunities for the Italian PV market, Solarexpo is offering the entire renewables business community the chance to debate these issues at the “Italian PV Summit – Roadmap to grid parity”, the international top-conference on solar PV that will be held in Verona (Italy) next week, ahead of the 13th edition of Solarexpo, the international exhibition and conference, with the participation of relevant international experts.
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