2001 was a great year for wind, as reported by MAKE Consulting in its latest report. The annual growth represents a 19% increase over the previous year. Each of the world’s top six markets (China, US, India, Germany, Canada, and the UK) installed more capacity than in 2010. Offshore installations dipped by a third to just over 800 MW in 2011, after a record year for new capacity added in 2010.
MAKE forecasts a CAGR of 7% during the period of 2012-2016 based upon 2011 installation. Growth will continue to be driven primarily by traditional markets, with the largest five markets accounting for nearly two thirds of forecasted new installed capacity through 2016. China alone is projected to account for over 40% of total new capacity during the five year period.
MAKE forecasts another strong year for wind power in 2012, with annual capacity growing 24% globally year on year. This growth will be based upon sustained growth in key traditional markets as well as expected record years in emerging markets, such as Brazil, Mexico, Romania, and Australia. Major pushes in the US and Spain to connect projects in the face of expiring support legislation at the end of the year will boost installation numbers in 2012.
Unclear future ahead
Beyond 2012, uncertainty abounds for many western wind power markets. Economic turmoil, particularly in Southern Europe, threatens several markets as government budget cuts put FITs in jeopardy. The industry’s second largest market, the U.S., faces similar policy uncertainty as well as high competition from inexpensive shale gas.
Markets in Asia Pacific are forecasted to sustain strong growth levels. Accelerated growth in emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe will increasingly help support overall new capacity numbers through the forecast period.
Meanwhile, the 2011 Global Wind Turbine Market Share report shows that competition within the global market place remains fierce, especially in the world’s leading wind market, China. Leading IPPs in China are increasingly focused on using turbines with stronger performance and superior product quality rather than lowest capital cost. This has led to Goldwind recapturing leadership in China, while Sinovel and Dongfang dropped in both regional and global rankings.
Vestas was able to maintain its position as the world’s largest turbine OEM in 2011, in spite of the strength of the Chinese turbine OEMs in their 17.6GW domestic market. Vestas’ strong showing in the Americas allowed the group to distance itself from the rest of the top five market players this year, commanding a 4.1 percentage point lead over second-placed China’s Goldwind.
In Western markets, Enercon surpassed Vestas as Europe’s market leader due to its dominance in the booming German onshore market plus a strong performance in Southern European markets such as France and Italy. In the Americas, long-standing market leader GE Wind gave ground to Vestas and Siemens, placing the conglomerate in second place within the region, with Vestas just edging the top spot.
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