These roadmaps look in greater depth at specific technologies and establish a growth pathway for each, from today’s levels of technology usage to the levels we need to have reached by 2050. The projections address the technological advances, but also the financing, legal/regulatory and public acceptance challenges that all technologies face. Their objective is to provide a blueprint that can help make the leap from political awareness to specific action that can ensure that investment decisions do not lock the world’s economies into long years of inefficient, high-emission technologies.
The latest IAE Wind Roadmap has been compiled with inputs from a wide range of stakeholders in the wind industry and the wider power sector, power system operators, research and development (R&D) institutions, finance, and government institutions. Two workshops were held to identify technological and deployment issues.
The Wind Roadmap establishes a target of 12% of global electricity from wind power by 2050 and calculates that some $3.2 trillion in investment will be required to meet this objective. 47 GW would need to be installed on average every year for the next 40 years – amounting to a 75% increase on annual investment to $81 billion.
The IEA forecast that from 2030, non-OECD economies including China, Latin America and India in particular, will produce some 17% of global wind energy; rising to 57% in 2050.
The IEA emphasise that onshore wind technology is proven. With costs per MWh ranging from $70 – 130, wind power is competitive where the resource is strong and when the cost of carbon is reflected in markets. Costs are also expected to decrease further as a result of technology development, deployment and economies of scale – by 23% by 2050. Nevertheless, the IEA says that “transitional support is needed to encourage deployment until full competition is achieved”.
Better transmission is critical
According to the IEA: “To achieve high penetrations of wind power, the flexibility of power systems and the markets they support must be enhanced and, eventually, increased”. Flexibility is a function of access to flexible generation, storage, and demand response, and is greatly enhanced by larger, faster power markets, smart grid technology, and the use of forecast models in system scheduling.
The Wind Roadmap includes key actions for the next ten years to drive wind energy development forward, including: long-term targets, supported by predictable market-based mechanisms; mechanisms for appropriate carbon pricing; new transmission to harvest resource-rich areas and interconnect power systems; lead agencies to coordinate planning and permitting; incentives to build transmission; and power system flexibility assessment.
The IEA also recommends that public awareness of the full benefits of wind power (including strategic carbon dioxide emissions reductions, security of supply and economic growth) needs to be raised, while it also calls for additional transmission to increase social acceptance.
For additional information:
