The report shows that 3.9 GW of onshore builds came online last year, along with 1.3 GW of onshore repowers and 101 megawatts (MW) of installed offshore capacity.
Onshore activity
Despite hitting the lowest installation mark since 2013 in 2024, the US is set to surpass 160 GW of cumulative installed onshore capacity by 2025. Onshore growth is projected to bounce back from 2024 and surpass 6.3 GW this year.
“The cliff in 2023 and 2024 created by the Production Tax Credit (PTC) push in 2022 will come to an end,” said Stephen Maldonado, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Despite uncertainty created by the new administration, the massive number of orders placed in 2023 culminating in projects now under construction, support the short-term forecast.”
The pipeline for onshore has 10.8 GW currently under construction through 2027, with another 3.9 GW announced.
GE Vernova led onshore wind installations in 2024, with 56% of the market and will continue to lead in connections for the next five years. It was followed by Vestas (40%) and Siemens Gamesa (4%).
Offshore activity
The offshore market is projected to increase in 2025 as well, with 900 MW of installed capacity, up from merely 101 MW in 2024. However, several projects have been shelved in the wake of recent Executive Orders, downgrading the five-year outlook by 1.8 GW.
Growth to rebound from 2024 levels, but five-year outlook downgraded 40%
According to the report, 33 GW of new onshore capacity will be installed through 2029, along with 6.6 GW of new offshore capacity and 5.5 GW of repowers. However, due to US policy changes and economic uncertainty, this five-year outlook of gross additions has dropped from a previous total of 75.8 GW, a decrease of 40%.
The main driver has been multiple Executive Orders, which include a temporary withdrawal of offshore wind leasing areas and a halt to onshore projects on federal lands. Additionally, the initiative to reduce civilian federal employees could constrain resources that are required for permitting procedures related to the development of a wind project. These developments create a complex landscape for wind energy stakeholders.
“While we expect the market to rebound somewhat, ongoing uncertainty around future US wind policy and economic pressures will likely constrain growth in the near-term compared to previous forecasts, despite sustained demand for power" added Maldonado. "Current projects that are under construction will likely complete, but announced projects will face greater challenges as developers reassess their strategies and project economics."
