Vaisala has released its 2014 Mexico Wind Performance Map which shows significant performance fluctuations in 2014, while delivering positive news for much of southern Mexico where above normal wind speeds have boosted performance at many of the country’s operational wind projects. Conversely, wind speeds below the long-term average in Mexico’s interior negatively affected overall production at wind farms in that region.
These departures from mean wind speed highlight the importance of gaining a deep understanding of how much seasonal and year-to year variability is possible at a location prior to major investment. This is critical to Mexican attempts to encourage a substantial influx of international capital to grow its domestic wind energy sector.
Given that wind speeds have a direct impact on wind energy generation, an increase or decrease of 5 percent can have a 5 percent to 8 percent impact on power production, depending on the wind sensitivity of the region.
Last year, wind speeds in Mexico’s interior, stretching from the US border to south Mexico, were 5 percent below normal. This had an adverse effect on the performance of a number of operating projects, including the 50 MW Los Altos wind farm in Jalisco, owned by Grupo Dragón. Fortunately, southern Mexico, where the vast majority of the country’s wind assets are located, did not follow the same trend – and the dense wind development area around coastal Oaxaca experienced wind speeds 5 percent higher than average.
The Oaxaca region – in particular the cluster of projects around Juchitán de Zaragoza - is of key strategic importance to international wind energy investors. Acciona has more than 550 MW of operational wind energy in this region while Iberdrola owns several other large projects in the vicinity. Oaxaca’s Isthmus of Tehuantepec boasts one of the strongest wind resources in the country due to unique topography that creates a natural wind funnel through a break in the Sierra Madre mountain ranges to the North and South for air traveling from North America and the Caribbean.
However, while the meteorological reasons behind the strength of the wind resource in the region are well understood, it is important to note that strong climate anomalies, both positive and negative, such as those experienced in Mexico last year, are by no means isolated or uncommon events. Should Oaxaca experience a low wind year, a large number of operating assets would experience substantial dips in production and corresponding reductions in their owners’ revenue streams.
The Vaisala study underlines a growing need for ongoing operational reconciliation to better understand the root causes behind performance fluctuations and better diversification of asset portfolios. Through its wind performance analysis, Vaisala helps to provide valuable insight for financiers and operators. This enables them to perform regional portfolio analysis in order to quickly view the effects of weather anomalies on both existing and proposed investments. In this way, meteorological and forecasting data is translated into energy investment decisions.
“The ongoing growth of the Mexican wind market, particularly in important regions like Oaxaca, is exciting” said Nic Wilson, Vaisala’s Regional Segment Manager for the Americas. “But given the financial impact of underperformance, it’s essential that investors, developers, and operators fully understand the possibility and underlying reasons for both above or below normal performance. This information feeds directly into long-term production estimates and helps the industry formulate strategies to diversify production sites and prepare for and better safeguard itself against unanticipated and unavoidable drops in generation.”
Vaisala is currently working with the US Department of Energy on a $2.5 million, 3-year study to improve the reliability of wind forecasting in complex terrain. The results of this study will enable significant advancements to be made to the weather models used to predict both long-term and short-term wind energy production thereby helping to reduce the cost of grid integration.
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